Bitcoin is attempting to close above the top of its descending triangle on the 4-hour time frame once more, but technical indicators signal that bearish pressure is still around. The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the resistance is more likely to hold than to break.
In addition, these moving averages are in line with the triangle top to add to its strength as a ceiling. Stochastic is also heading lower after reaching overbought territory, indicating that bearish momentum is returning. RSI is also heading south, so Bitcoin might follow suit.
In that case, bitcoin could still revisit the triangle bottom at $6,100 to test support. A bounce could take it once more to the top, but the chances of a breakout happening soon are higher since the price is approaching the peak of the formation. A break higher could spur a climb that’s roughly the same height as the triangle while a move lower could also be followed by a drop of the same size.
Bitcoin has had some updates going for it, though, particularly the launch of Fidelity’s institutional platform for it and Ethereum. This could bring a load of funds flowing in from bigger institutions, significantly driving up volume, demand, and therefore prices.
Still, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty surrounding the SEC decision on Bitcoin ETFs as market watchers have pinned their hopes on the announcement for a rebound this year. Rejection could still spur a dip in price as traders would continue to stay wary of regulation, even with more institutional activity.
Meanwhile, risk sentiment in the general financial markets could also influence bitcoin direction in the days ahead. Stronger risk appetite could shore up demand for cryptocurrencies while a return in risk-off flows could spur a drop.
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