Is the “Bitcoin bubble” really about to burst? Or does Bitcoin still have a chance?
In one year Bitcoin grew in value over 28 times before dropping 60% in price, this event has sparked a lot of discussion about whether the market is in a bubble or not.
Before we can be sure of whether we are in a bubble we need to look at Bitcoins history.
The 2011 Bitcoin Bubble
Bitcoin started off 2011 with a 30 cent price tag ($0.30), it grew to a dollar around February before soaring to $10 in June, then tripling to $30 in less than a week.
The “bubble” burst a few days later on June 11th bringing the price down to $15 (a 50% drop, sound familiar?), Bitcoin rose again to $20 before dropping down to $5. This is currently Bitcoin’s biggest “bubble”.
Growth: Over 100x, higher than the 2017 “Bubble”
The 2013 Bitcoin Bubble
Bitcoin started the year at around $15 and reached $50 by the middle of March, by April one Bitcoin was worth $100 and in less than two weeks it’s price doubled making one Bitcoin worth about $230.
The very next day the price dropped to $160, then to $70 a week later before rising back to $100 by the end of April.
Growth: Over 17x, 60% the size of the 2017 “bubble”
The Second 2013 Bitcoin Bubble
After stabalizing at $100, Bitcoin rose to $250 in November and within one month the price more than quadrupled reaching $1,100.
That is over 4 times growth in less than a month.
Again the “bubble” burst and Bitcoin dropped to $700.
Growth: 11x, 39% the size of the 2017 “bubble”
The 2017 Bitcoin Bubble
The “bubble” everyone is talking about, Bitcoin started the year at $900 and ended the year at $20,000 before dropping to $15,000 and then $8,000 in 2018.
Growth: 28x or 2,800% growth, Bitcoins second largest “bubble”
So are we in a bubble? Is it too late to invest?
The reason why the media is going crazy about Bitcoin “being in a bubble” is mainly due to its high price tag.
Nobody cared in 2011 when the price of one Bitcoin tripled in less than 7 days but in 2017 it took Bitcoin four months to double in value from $2000 to $4000 and this is really when the Bitcoin mania started to begin.
If Bitcoin was ever in a bubble it has already been popped numerous times, I think people are confusing media hype combined with a high price for being in a bubble.
For example there are other cryptocurrencies that have grown over 100x in less than one year but no one talks about those because they still cost less than a few dollars, if they reach a price level similar to Bitcoins then the bubble talk will start for those coins as well.
Think about that, 100x growth in less than a year is more than 3x higher than Bitcoin’s largest “bubble”, but because of the low prices of those coins no one is even paying attention to them.
I believe people are focusing on the wrong numbers, instead of paying attention to the price, we should be paying attention to the rate of growth.
So is it too late to invest in Bitcoin?
Well less than 0.3% of the worlds population owns any Bitcoin, plus Blockchain technology (which Bitcoin pioneered) is gaining worldwide interest with universities offering courses on the subject and big companies looking into the technology.
Another thing to note is that compared to Bitcoin’s massive growth, the price reductions simply pale in comparison, especially if you look at the percentages instead of the price.
For example, in 2017 Bitcoin grew 28 times or 2,800% and dropped only 60% by 2018. If you bought in early you are still in a lot of profit.
I understand that when investing in Bitcoin the price is the first thing that people will notice but when it comes to investing price is not the only metric you can use to judge an assets growth.
You need to look at the percentage gains as well as the time periods during which the highs and lows occur.
Bitcoin has risen and fallen many times during it’s time, it is even expected by some investors now, last year we saw Bitcoin grow from $900 to $20,000 and now the price hovers at around $6,000.
If you got in before Bitcoin was worth $6,000 then this is not too bad, however I believe we will hit a price floor soon and from there the only way is up. It doesn’t look too late to me and I am confident that we are not in a real bubble.